Using predictive modelling to support return to work
11 August 2022
Based on insurers’ claims data, SIRA is using predictive modelling to support employers with workers at a higher risk of delayed return to work.
Research shows that staying at work or an early return to work after an injury leads to the best possible health and social outcomes.
Return to work rates are at historic lows, with less than eight out of 10 workers back at work in 13 weeks compared to nine out of 10 in 2015.
One action in SIRA’s return to work action plan is to use predictive modelling to identify employers with workers who show risk factors of delayed return to work.
SIRA is identifying these employers and workers through analysing the claims data provided by insurers. The risk factors used in the modelling include the inexperience of the employer, any recent spike in claims, and delays in reporting. Factors relating to the worker include the nature, type and location of the worker’s injury and events such as surgery in the first month of a claim. Modelling is based on monthly figures to keep abreast of trends in the workplace.
SIRA is supporting and educating the identified employers through a mix of engagements, including inspector visits to the workplace, phone calls, virtual meetings, and regular correspondence.
Each month, inspectors visit up to 30 employers identified as being at higher risk of having workers who may experience delayed return to work. From next month this is set to increase to 80 employers.
SIRA writes to another 300 employers every month to provide advice and direction to help them achieve compliance.
Issues canvassed with the employers include emphasising the benefits of recovery at work, obligations to provide suitable employment, breaking down barriers preventing the recovery at work, and advice and support to help them meet the legislative obligations and improve their return to work systems.
To supplement this outreach, SIRA provides information to insurers every month on employers and workers who may be at risk so that they can implement their own measures to support recovery and return to work outcomes.
There are many other factors that workers compensation insurers can screen for to identify workers that may require early intervention and support.
These factors include those related to the compensation process, the support of their workplace, and personal factors such as a person’s own expectations of recovery, and ability to return to work.
In Standard of Practice 33 and Standard of Practice 34, SIRA has set the expectation that insurers conduct their own screening to better support workers and facilitate their recovery.